ANALISIS KAUSALITAS ANTARA IHSG, INDEKS DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE DAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH/US$

Khairina Natsir, Yusbardini Yusbardini, Nurainun Bangun
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Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menginvestigasi hubungan kausalitas antara IHSG, nilai tukar rupiah/US$  dan Indeks Global yang diwakili oleh Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average. Penelitian mengambil sampel nilai-nilai variabel yang diteliti dengan periode data bulanan dalam periode Juli 2005-Desember 2018. Alat analisis menggunakan uji Engle-Granger untuk menginvestigasi  hubungan kausalitas.  Hasil Uji kausalitas Granger memperlihatkan terdapat hubungan dua arah atau saling mempengaruhi antara IHSG dengan nilai rupiah/US$. Selain itu ditemukan pula bahwa pergerakan Indeks Dow Jones Industrial  secara signifikan mempengaruhi kepada pergerakan IHSG dan nilai tukar rupiah/US$, tetapi sebaliknya pergerakan yang terjadi pada IHSG dan nilai tukar tidak mampu mempengaruhi gerakan indeks Dow Jones Industrial. Hasil Uji kointegrasi Johansen memperlihatkan bahwa semua variabel penelitian mempunyai  hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang yang signifikan.

 

This study aims to investigate the causality relationship between the CSPI, the exchange rate of rupiah / US $ and the Global Index represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The study sampled variable values studied with monthly data periods in the period July 2005-December 2018. The analysis tool uses the Engle-Granger test to investigate causality relationships. Granger causality test results show there is a two-way relationship or influence each other between the CSPI with the value of rupiah / US $. In addition it was also found that the movement of the Dow Jones Industrial Index significantly affected the movement of the JCI and the exchange rate of the rupiah / US $, but conversely the movements that occurred on the JCI and the exchange rate were unable to influence the movement of the Dow Jones Industrial index. Johansen's cointegration test results show that all research variables have a significant long-term balance relationship.

Keywords

kausalitas; kointegrasi; IHSG; nilai tukar rupiah/US$; Indeks Dow Jones

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