PENGARUH INFLASI, SUKU BUNGA BI DAN KURS RUPIAH TERHADAP PERGERAKAN IHSG DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA PERIODE 2019 -2024
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Abstract
Pasar modal sering dianggap sebagai cerminan utama perekonomian suatu negara. Namun, apakah semua faktor yang memengaruhi pergerakannya sudah benar-benar dipahami? Inflasi yang tinggi, suku bunga yang fluktuatif, dan nilai tukar Rupiah yang melemah sering kali disalahkan atas ketidakstabilan pasar saham, termasuk di Indonesia. Namun, pengaruh masing-masing faktor ini terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) masih menjadi perdebatan di kalangan akademisi dan praktisi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan antara inflasi, suku bunga BI, dan kurs Rupiah terhadap IHSG selama periode 2019–2024. Dengan menggunakan metode regresi linier berganda dan analisis data melalui SPSS, penelitian ini menemukan bahwa inflasi tidak memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap IHSG. Sebaliknya, suku bunga BI memberikan pengaruh positif yang signifikan, sementara pelemahan kurs Rupiah terbukti menekan IHSG karena meningkatnya biaya impor perusahaan. Secara simultan, ketiga variabel ini hanya menjelaskan 35,7% variasi IHSG, menunjukkan adanya faktor lain yang juga memengaruhi pergerakan pasar saham. Temuan ini memberikan wawasan penting bagi investor dan pembuat kebijakan untuk memahami lebih dalam hubungan antara variabel makroekonomi dan pasar modal Indonesia. Dengan demikian, penelitian ini diharapkan dapat menjadi referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan strategis di tengah ketidakpastian ekonomi global.
The stock market is often considered a primary reflection of a country's economy. However, are all factors influencing its movements truly understood? High inflation, fluctuating interest rates, and a weakening Rupiah exchange rate are often blamed for stock market instability, including in Indonesia. Yet, the extent of each factor's influence on the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) remains a topic of debate among academics and practitioners. This study aims to analyze the relationship between inflation, Bank Indonesia's interest rates (BI Rate), and the Rupiah exchange rate on IHSG during the 2019–2024 period. Using multiple linear regression and data analysis through SPSS, the study finds that inflation does not significantly affect IHSG. Conversely, BI Rate has a significant positive impact, while the weakening Rupiah negatively affects IHSG by increasing companies' import costs. Simultaneously, these three variables collectively explain only 35.7% of IHSG's variations, indicating other factors also contribute to stock market movements. These findings provide essential insights for investors and policymakers to better understand the relationship between macroeconomic variables and Indonesia's stock market. Thus, this study is expected to serve as a reference for strategic decision-making amidst global economic uncertainty.
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