Determinan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Periode 2018-2023
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Abstract
Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan tujuan mengetahui pengaruh harga minyak, harga emas, dan suku bunga terhadap nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap Dollar Amerika Serikat pada periode 2018–2023. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder dengan frekuensi bulanan, meliputi harga minyak mentah WTI, harga emas dunia, suku bunga BI Rate, dan nilai tukar Rupiah. Metode penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan desain longitudinal dan analisis regresi menggunakan model ARDL. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa harga minyak berpengaruh signifikan dan negatif terhadap nilai tukar Rupiah, sedangkan harga emas tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Suku bunga memiliki pengaruh signifikan dan positif terhadap nilai tukar Rupiah. Adanya penelitian ini dapat memberikan wawasan penting bagi pembuat kebijakan dan pelaku ekonomi untuk merancang strategi lebih baik terhadap fluktuasi nilai tukar yang dipengaruhi oleh dinamika global.
This study was conducted with the aim of determining the effect of oil prices, gold prices, and interest rates on the Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar in the period 2018–2023. The data used are secondary data with a monthly frequency, including WTI crude oil prices, world gold prices, BI Rate interest rates, and the Rupiah exchange rate. This research method uses a quantitative approach with a longitudinal design and regression analysis using the ARDL model. The results of the study show that oil prices have a significant and negative effect on the Rupiah exchange rate, while gold prices do not have a significant effect. Interest rates have a significant and positive effect on the Rupiah exchange rate. This research can provide important insights for policy makers and economic actors to design better strategies for exchange rate fluctuations influenced by global dynamics.
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