STUDI RISIKO DAN BIAYA PADA TAHAP PERENCANAAN PROYEK KONSTRUKSI BANGUNAN INDUSTRI MIGAS (STUDI KASUS: PROYEK X)

Mathawi Mathawi, Johny Johan
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Abstract

Industri konstruksi untuk bangunan industri khususnya industri MIGAS sangat rentan terhadap risiko ketidakpastian karena sifat bisnisnya dari penilaian investasi awal proyek sampai dengan penyelesaian fisik diakhir proyek. Dan juga sangat rentan terhadap bahaya jika tidak ada langkah langkah yang tepat dan tindakan pencegahan yang diambil, terutama dalam mengelola risiko dan ketidakpastian. Manajemen risiko memastikan bawah risiko dapat diidentifikasi, diperiksa dan dimitigasi dimana para stakeholder sebagai kunci dalam setiap pengambilan keputusan. Penerapan manajemen risiko dalam suatu proyek sangat diperlukan agar tingkat keberhasilannya tinggi dan menghasilkan keuntungan yang tinggi pada tim proyek. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan studi risiko dan biaya dengan mengidentifikasi, mengevaluasi terhadap laporan HAZOP studi terhadap dampak biaya. Analisis risiko dan biaya dievaluasi  dengan menggunakan  metode simulasi Monte Carlo dengan bantuan perangkat lunak Crystall Ball Versi 11.1.2.3 untuk menentukan konsekuensi risiko dan biaya apa saja yang paling signifikan dalam suatu sistim pada instalasi produksi dan kelayakan suatu proyek untuk dapat dilanjutkan pada tahap konstruksi. Studi Risiko dan biaya pada tahap FEED (perencanaan awal) dengan mengevaluasi laporan HAZOP dilakukan dengan teknik probabilitas menggunakan bantuan software crystal ball Ver.11.1. Dari hasil simulasi pada tingkat keyakinan 90% diperoleh nilai rentang risiko yang masuk dalam kategori Low (rendah) berdasarkan spesifikasi ring rangking dari pihak OWNER. Sedangkan estimasi biaya proyek berdasarkan standar AACE pada tingkat keyakinan 90% masih berada dalam pada rentang nilai biaya tersebut.

 

The construction industry for industrial buildings, especially the Oil and Gas industry, is very vulnerable to the risk of uncertainty because of the nature of its business from the initial investment appraisal of the project to the physical completion at the end of the project. And it is also very vulnerable to danger if there are no appropriate steps and precautions taken, especially in managing risks and uncertainties. Risk management ensures that risks can be identified, examined and mitigated by which stakeholders are key in every decision making. The application of risk management in a project is very necessary so that the success rate is high and produces high profits on the project team. In this research, a risk and cost study is carried out by identifying, evaluating the HAZOP study report on the impact of costs. Risk and cost analysis is evaluated using the Monte Carlo simulation method with the help of the Crystall Ball software Version 11.1.2.3 to determine the consequences of the most significant risks and costs in a system at a production plant and the feasibility of a project to proceed at the construction stage. Risk and cost studies at the FEED (initial planning) stage by evaluating the HAZOP report were carried out using probability techniques using the help of crystal ball software Ver.11.1. From the simulation results at a 90% confidence level, the risk range values are included in the Low category based on the ring rank specifications of the OWNER. While the estimated project costs based on AACE standards at a 90% confidence level are still within the range of these cost values.

Keywords

Manajemen Risiko; HAZOP studi; Simulasi Monte Carlo; Crystall Ball

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References

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