EARNINGS MANAGEMENT AND PROBABILITY OF DEFAULT ANALYSIS OF NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES IN INDONESIA DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
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Abstract
Pada masa pandemi COVID-19, ekonomi Indonesia mengalami pertumbuhan negatif 2,19 persen (2020). Kondisi ini mempengaruhi penurunan bisnis di Indonesia yang berdampak pada peningkatan Non Performing Loan perbankan. Umumnya, penilaian kredit oleh perbankan dilakukan menggunakan informasi yang terdapat pada laporan keuangan sehingga pencatatan akuntansi yang benar dapat mempengaruhi kualitas kredit. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mempelajari apakah manajemen laba (earnings management) yang dilakukan oleh perusahaan selama krisis pandemi COVID-19 memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap kemungkinan gagal bayar (probability of default), khususnya bagi perusahaan sektor non keuangan di Indonesia. Data penelitian diperoleh dari Bursa Efek Indonesia periode 2019 – 2021 dimana probability of default dihitung dengan menggunakan KMV-Merton Model dan earnings management menggunakan metode F-score Dechow. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat peningkatan jumlah perusahaan yang memiliki probabilitas default pada masa pandemi COVID-19, namun jumlah perusahaan yang terindikasi melakukan earnings management mengalami penurunan. Hasil uji menunjukan bahwa pengaruh earnings management terhadap probability of default tidak signifikan. Namun demikian, pihak yang berkepentingan harus dapat sedini mungkin mengidentifikasi adanya manajemen laba yang dapat berdampak buruk terhadap kualitas kredit dan mengantisipasi kemungkinan gagal bayar di kemudian hari.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Indonesian economy experienced negative growth of 2.19 percent (2020). This condition affects the decline in business in Indonesia, which impacts the increase in bank Non-Performing Loans. Generally, credit assessment by banks is performed based on the information figured in financial statements and therefore the accounting records can affect credit quality. This research aims to study whether earnings management carried out by companies during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis has a significant effect on the probability of default, especially for non-financial sector companies in Indonesia. The data was obtained from the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2019 – 2021. The probability of default was calculated using the KMV-Merton Model and earnings management using the F-score Dechow method. The results showed that there was an increase in the number of companies that had a probability of default during the COVID-19 pandemic, but but the number of companies that indicated earnings management decreased. The result showed that the effect of earnings management on the probability of default is not significant. However, interested parties must be able to identify earnings management as early as possible, which can have an adverse impact on credit quality and anticipate possible defaults in the future.
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