Web-based Application for Forecasting Stock Price of Plantation Companies Using ARIMA and FTSMC

Abstract

Stock is an investment instrument that is “high risk-high return” which means the higher the potential profit generated, the higher the potential risk faced. Therefore, to minimize this risk, it is necessary to forecast stock prices to help make investment decisions. This research aims to forecast the closing price of plantation company's stock price and compare the accuracy of the forecasting results of the two methods based on the MAPE value. The data used in this study is data on closing prices for AALI, LSIP, and SSMS’s stock price from 31 January 2019 to 31 January 2022 sourced from the Yahoo! Finance. The results in this research are FTSMC method has a higher level of accuracy than the ARIMA method. This is indicated by the MAPE value produced by FTSMC method which is smaller than the ARIMA method. Therefore, the author recommends to forecasting future data using FTSMC method.